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Stadium Background

Neftekhimik vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk

Russia Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Neftekhimik Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Tarba Z.
18' Event
Magomedov R.
45'
Kakhidze A.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Neftekhimik and Chernomorets Novorossijsk finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftekhimik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Neftekhimik
11%
Draws
9%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Neftekhimik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Neftekhimik carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Neftekhimik taking it.
  • Regular FNL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Neftekhimik Clean Sheet 68%
Chernomorets Novorossijsk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftekhimik Chernomorets Novorossijsk
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 12 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.13 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
4:0
Oct 20, 2025 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Neftekhimik
1:1
May 19, 2025 FNL
Neftekhimik vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
0:2
Feb 17, 2025 Club Friendly
Neftekhimik vs Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 FNL
Chernomorets Novorossijsk vs Neftekhimik
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftekhimik Compare

Top Goalscorer Magomedov R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bober I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Chernomorets Novorossijsk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftekhimik 86 / 100
Chernomorets Novorossijsk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftekhimik Chernomorets Novorossijsk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chernomorets Novorossijsk has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Neftekhimik found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (32 games).

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Neftekhimik has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Neftekhimik VS Chernomorets Novorossijsk
1.13 Goals Scored 0.86
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
75% Over 1.5 71%
38% Over 2.5 57%
38% Over 3.5 29%

League Standings

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9Torpedo Moscow3412101237:3946
10Chelyabinsk3410141042:4044
11Neftekhimik3410131140:4143
12SKA Khabarovsk3410121237:4542
13Arsenal Tula348151142:4439
14Ulyanovsk349101535:4837
15Ufa349101532:4037
16Chernomorets Novorossijsk34981737:4935
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18FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye34572230:7622