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Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

87' Event
James R.

AI Match Summary

Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee).

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
40%
Draws
29%
Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Negele Arsi Ketema FC have won more games recently than Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee).
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Clean Sheet 68%
Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Negele Arsi Ketema FC Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 10
Draws 11 11
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Premier League
Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
0:1
Oct 23, 2025 Premier League
Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Negele Arsi Ketema FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) Compare

Top Goalscorer James R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Negele Arsi Ketema FC 42 / 100
Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Negele Arsi Ketema FC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Negele Arsi Ketema FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Negele Arsi Ketema FC VS Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)
1 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sidama Bunna381911843:2368
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5Ethio Electric S.C.3813151032:2654
6St. Georges3814121233:3154
7Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635