Sport Picks

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Nepal vs Hong Kong

World World

Friendly International
Thu, Mar 26, 2026
VS
12:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nepal host Hong Kong in the Friendly International. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Nepal have averaged 0.61 scored and 1.75 conceded recently, against Hong Kong's 2.08 scored and 1.13 conceded. Past meetings favor Nepal slightly — 0-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 26, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.96 - 1.76) back Hong Kong to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Nepal
15%
Draws
78%
Hong Kong
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hong Kong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hong Kong come out ahead of Nepal on wins alone.
  • Model gives Hong Kong a 78% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 39.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Nepal Clean Sheet 12%
Hong Kong Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nepal Hong Kong
Matches Played 28 38
Wins 5 18
Draws 6 8
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 0.61 2.08
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 1.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 Friendly International
Nepal vs Hong Kong
0:0
Jun 5, 2025 Friendly International
Hong Kong vs Nepal
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nepal 10 / 100
Hong Kong 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nepal Hong Kong

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hong Kong Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nepal found the back of the net in 43% of recent matches (28 games).

Hong Kong let in goals in 55% of their last 38 matches.

Historical meetings average 0.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Nepal remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nepal VS Hong Kong
0.43 Goals Scored 2.38
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.5
29% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nepal

(Home)
31 Mar
Nepal
0 : 1
Laos
18 Nov
Nepal
0 : 1
Malaysia
13 Nov
Bangladesh
2 : 2
Nepal
14 Oct
Nepal
0 : 1
Vietnam
09 Oct
Vietnam
3 : 1
Nepal
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Hong Kong

(Away)
03 Oct
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Cambodia
30 Sept
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Brunei
27 Sept
Hong Kong
4 : 0
Laos
09 Jun
Cambodia
2 : 0
Hong Kong
05 Jun
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Mongolia
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