Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Neptunas vs BE1 NFA

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

77' Event
Ajayi S. B.

AI Match Summary

The I Lyga game between Neptunas and BE1 NFA finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neptunas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Neptunas
15%
Draws
32%
BE1 NFA
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Neptunas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Neptunas carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Neptunas a 53% chance of winning this.
  • Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Neptunas have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 20%
BE1 NFA Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neptunas BE1 NFA
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 15
Draws 3 3
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.45 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BE1 NFA
1:0
Aug 15, 2025 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs Neptunas
0:4
Apr 18, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BE1 NFA
3:0
Oct 18, 2024 I Lyga
Neptunas vs BE1 NFA
4:1
May 31, 2024 I Lyga
BE1 NFA vs Neptunas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neptunas Compare

Top Goalscorer Ajayi S. B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

BE1 NFA Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neptunas 67 / 100
BE1 NFA 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neptunas BE1 NFA

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neptunas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neptunas found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: BE1 NFA conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Neptunas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Neptunas VS BE1 NFA
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Neptunas

(Home)
15 Aug
Neptunas
0 : 4
FK Babrungas
08 Aug
Tauras Taurage
0 : 2
Neptunas
01 Aug
Garliava
0 : 1
Neptunas
25 Jul
Neptunas
2 : 1
Siauliai 2
20 Jul
Transinvest 2
2 : 2
Neptunas
Page 1 of 6

BE1 NFA

(Away)
14 Aug
BE1 NFA
2 : 1
Hegelmann Litauen 2
08 Aug
FK Minija
3 : 0
BE1 NFA
31 Jul
BE1 NFA
0 : 2
Jonava
26 Jul
BFA Vilnius
3 : 1
BE1 NFA
01 Jul
FK Atmosfera
0 : 1
BE1 NFA
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 20 17 1 2 53:11 52
2 FK Babrungas 20 16 3 1 36:6 51
3 Neptunas 20 12 2 6 27:24 38
4 Tauras Taurage 20 12 2 6 36:22 38
5 BE1 NFA 19 11 2 6 31:24 35
6 Dainava Alytus 19 10 5 4 32:18 35
7 BFA Vilnius 20 10 2 8 29:29 32
8 Zalgiris 2 20 9 4 7 31:28 31
9 FK Atmosfera 19 7 4 8 29:24 25
10 Jonava 20 6 5 9 24:26 23
11 Garliava 19 6 4 9 23:20 22
12 Transinvest 2 20 5 3 12 20:46 18
13 Hegelmann Litauen 2 20 5 1 14 21:45 16
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 20 4 1 15 15:34 13
15 Ekranas 20 3 2 15 19:42 11
16 Siauliai 2 20 2 5 13 18:45 11
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)