Sport Picks
Neptunas vs FK Atmosfera - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Lithuania
I Lyga 
Match Events
10'
10'
Fujishima Y.
58'
58'
Veselinovic M.
69'
69'
Vainikaitis M.
AI Match Summary
Neptunas in this I Lyga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neptunas.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neptunas
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Neptunas have won more games recently than FK Atmosfera.
- 44% — that's where the model lands on Neptunas taking it.
- Regular I Lyga form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 17%
FK Atmosfera Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Neptunas | FK Atmosfera |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 10 |
| Draws | 2 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 29, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Atmosfera
3:1
Apr 25, 2026 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas
1:3
Sep 27, 2025 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas
4:2
May 23, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Atmosfera
1:0
Aug 3, 2024 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs Neptunas
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Neptunas Compare
Top Goalscorer Fujishima Y.
1 Goals Assists Leader Vainikaitis M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
FK Atmosfera Compare
Top Goalscorer Veselinovic M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Neptunas 48 / 100
FK Atmosfera 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Neptunas FK Atmosfera
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Neptunas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: FK Atmosfera conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Neptunas's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Neptunas went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Neptunas VS FK Atmosfera
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Neptunas
(Home) 19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1 Neptunas
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0 Jonava
07 Sept
Zalgiris 2
1 : 0 Neptunas
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1 FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0 Neptunas
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0 Jonava
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1 FK Atmosfera
15 Aug
Neptunas
0 : 4 FK Babrungas
25 Jul
Neptunas
2 : 1 Siauliai 2
18 Jun
Neptunas
2 : 1 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
Page 1 of 3
FK Atmosfera
(Away) 19 Sept
FK Atmosfera
1 : 1 BFA Vilnius
11 Sept
FK Babrungas
3 : 2 FK Atmosfera
05 Sept
FK Atmosfera
3 : 1 Tauras Taurage
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1 FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
Dainava Alytus
1 : 1 FK Atmosfera
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
FK Babrungas
3 : 2 FK Atmosfera
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1 FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
Dainava Alytus
1 : 1 FK Atmosfera
14 Aug
Transinvest 2
2 : 0 FK Atmosfera
01 Aug
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
3 : 1 FK Atmosfera
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minija | 25 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 68:13 | 67 |
| 2 | FK Babrungas | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 43:11 | 61 |
| 3 | BE1 NFA | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 44:24 | 50 |
| 4 | Neptunas | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 33:30 | 44 |
| 5 | BFA Vilnius | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 39:35 | 43 |
| 6 | Zalgiris 2 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 38:32 | 43 |
| 7 | Tauras Taurage | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43:31 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava Alytus | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 35:25 | 40 |
| 9 | FK Atmosfera | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37:33 | 30 |
| 10 | Garliava | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 31:28 | 28 |
| 11 | Jonava | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 28:33 | 27 |
| 12 | FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 23:43 | 22 |
| 13 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 29:58 | 21 |
| 14 | Hegelmann Litauen 2 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 26:59 | 19 |
| 15 | Siauliai 2 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 27:56 | 17 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 25 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 25:58 | 14 |
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)
