Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ner Poddebice vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group VI
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group VI game between Ner Poddebice and Tomaszow Mazowiecki finished 2-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tomaszow Mazowiecki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ner Poddebice
15%
Draws
34%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ner Poddebice

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Tomaszow Mazowiecki carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on Tomaszow Mazowiecki taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Ner Poddebice Clean Sheet 20%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ner Poddebice Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Matches Played 30 44
Wins 4 24
Draws 5 7
Losses 21 13
Goals Scored 0.97 2.5
Goals Conceded 2.53 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.79 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2016 III Liga - Group VI
Ner Poddebice vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2:6
Oct 4, 2015 III Liga - Group VI
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Ner Poddebice
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ner Poddebice 24 / 100
Tomaszow Mazowiecki 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ner Poddebice Tomaszow Mazowiecki

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tomaszow Mazowiecki Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tomaszow Mazowiecki conceded in 82% of 44 recent games.

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Tomaszow Mazowiecki has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Ner Poddebice's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 2.38
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Ner Poddebice

(Home)
18 Feb
KTS Weszlo
5 : 2
Ner Poddebice
01 Jul
Ner Poddebice
0 : 9
Buczek
28 Jul
Ner Poddebice
3 : 2
GLKS Zawisza Rzgow
14 Jul
Ner Poddebice
0 : 1
Pelikan
04 Jun
Ner Poddebice
3 : 1
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 6

Tomaszow Mazowiecki

(Away)
26 Sept
Olimpia Elblag
1 : 2
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
18 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 2
Swit Mazowiecki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
05 Sept
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 2
Troszyn
29 Aug
Jagiellonia II
1 : 1
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Polonia Warszawa 34 21 5 8 62:25 68
2 Ursus Warszawa 34 19 8 7 56:26 65
3 Sokol Aleksandrow Lodz 34 18 11 5 53:24 65
4 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 34 19 8 7 79:37 65
5 Legia II 34 19 8 7 66:38 65
6 LKS Lodz 34 19 7 8 71:37 64
7 Pelikan 34 18 10 6 58:29 64
8 Swit Mazowiecki 34 17 12 5 61:27 63
9 Blekitni Raciaz 34 15 8 11 56:52 53
10 Warta Sieradz 34 12 7 15 43:46 43
11 Bron Radom 34 9 10 15 51:70 37
12 Warta Dzialoszyn 34 10 5 19 33:82 35
13 Pilica Bialobrzegi 34 10 4 20 48:60 34
14 Oskar Przysucha 34 7 8 19 42:78 29
15 Energia Kozienice 34 6 9 19 41:64 27
16 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 34 6 9 19 36:60 27
17 Otwock 34 6 4 24 24:86 22
18 Ner Poddebice 34 4 9 21 31:70 21
Promotion - III Liga - Group I 2015/2016 (Play Offs)