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Nereto vs Castelnuovo Vomano - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
D'Egidio S.
78'
Natale V.

AI Match Summary

Castelnuovo Vomano in this Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castelnuovo Vomano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Nereto
30%
Draws
70%
Castelnuovo Vomano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castelnuovo Vomano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Castelnuovo Vomano have won more games recently than Nereto.
  • Castelnuovo Vomano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Nereto Clean Sheet 10%
Castelnuovo Vomano Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nereto Castelnuovo Vomano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 8
Draws 5 10
Losses 23 12
Goals Scored 0.67 1.2
Goals Conceded 2.37 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Nereto vs Castelnuovo Vomano
0:1
Dec 8, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Castelnuovo Vomano vs Nereto
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nereto Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Castelnuovo Vomano Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Egidio S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nereto 10 / 100
Castelnuovo Vomano 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nereto Castelnuovo Vomano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castelnuovo Vomano Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castelnuovo Vomano has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Nereto's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Away concern: Castelnuovo Vomano has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nereto VS Castelnuovo Vomano
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nereto

(Home)
22 May
Nereto
1 : 2
Vastese
15 May
Castelfidardo
3 : 0
Nereto
11 May
Nereto
1 : 3
Vastogirardi
07 May
Fano
5 : 1
Nereto
24 Apr
Nereto
0 : 1
Castelnuovo Vomano
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Castelnuovo Vomano

(Away)
29 May
Vastogirardi
2 : 0
Castelnuovo Vomano
22 May
Vastogirardi
1 : 1
Castelnuovo Vomano
15 May
Castelnuovo Vomano
1 : 2
Montegiorgio
11 May
Porto D'Ascoli
1 : 1
Castelnuovo Vomano
08 May
Castelnuovo Vomano
1 : 1
US Tolentino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Recanatese 34 20 8 6 69:23 68
2 Trastevere Calcio 34 17 8 9 54:33 59
3 US Tolentino 34 16 8 10 42:30 56
4 Sambenedettese 34 15 10 9 41:36 55
5 Vastese 34 13 14 7 44:32 53
6 Pineto 34 13 13 8 43:29 52
7 Roma City 34 15 6 13 41:45 51
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 13 9 38:38 49
9 Notaresco Calcio 34 14 7 13 45:41 49
10 Montegiorgio 34 14 7 13 38:36 49
11 Porto D'Ascoli 34 13 10 11 41:39 49
12 Matese 34 13 10 11 44:41 49
13 Fano 34 13 9 12 44:39 48
14 Vastogirardi 34 12 10 12 48:51 46
15 Castelnuovo Vomano 34 11 11 12 49:51 44
16 Castelfidardo 34 11 8 15 36:36 41
17 Nereto 34 2 6 26 23:80 12
18 Alto Casertano 34 1 4 29 21:81 7
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2021/2022 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 (Play Out)