Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Vtora liga Gradski stadion, Nesebar
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nesebar host CSKA Sofia II in the Vtora liga. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Nesebar have averaged 2.79 scored and 1.03 conceded recently, against CSKA Sofia II's 1.9 scored and 0.9 conceded. Past meetings favor CSKA Sofia II slightly — 0-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 16, 2025, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 1.56, favoring CSKA Sofia II. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Nesebar
15%
Draws
54%
CSKA Sofia II
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: CSKA Sofia II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Nesebar's 2.79 goals per match outpaces what CSKA Sofia II have produced (1.9).
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on CSKA Sofia II taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • CSKA Sofia II have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 15%
CSKA Sofia II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nesebar CSKA Sofia II
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 18
Draws 6 5
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 2.79 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Vtora liga
CSKA Sofia II vs Nesebar
2:0
Sep 1, 2024 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II
0:3
Feb 26, 2017 Vtora liga
CSKA Sofia II vs Nesebar
2:0
Aug 21, 2016 Vtora liga
Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nesebar 10 / 100
CSKA Sofia II 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nesebar CSKA Sofia II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CSKA Sofia II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nesebar found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

CSKA Sofia II let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Nesebar has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Nesebar VS CSKA Sofia II
1.88 Goals Scored 2.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nesebar

(Home)
27 Sept
Vihren
2 : 0
Nesebar
20 Sept
Nesebar
4 : 3
Beroe
15 Sept
Gorna
1 : 1
Nesebar
06 Sept
Nesebar
2 : 1
Rilski Sportist
02 Sept
Marek
1 : 0
Nesebar
Page 1 of 6

CSKA Sofia II

(Away)
27 Sept
CSKA Sofia II
1 : 0
Svoge
21 Sept
Dobrudzha
1 : 3
CSKA Sofia II
13 Sept
CSKA Sofia II
4 : 0
Montana
06 Sept
Etar
1 : 0
CSKA Sofia II
03 Sept
CSKA Sofia II
5 : 1
Spartak Pleven
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 25:11 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23:9 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 17:8 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 11 6 3 2 18:8 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 16:12 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 14:10 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 20:17 17
8 Gorna 11 4 4 3 9:10 16
9 Yantra Gabrovo 11 5 1 5 12:11 16
10 Hebar 11 4 2 5 24:19 14
11 Etar 10 4 2 4 17:19 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 11:12 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 11:22 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 9:10 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 13:23 11
16 Svoge 11 2 4 5 7:10 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 12:18 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 4:33 0
Promotion - efbet League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - efbet League (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Relegation)