Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nesebar vs Sozopol

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East 2025/2026 Gradski stadion, Nesebar
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Third League - South-East 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Nesebar
30%
Draws
47%
Sozopol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sozopol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nesebar lately — more wins on the board than Sozopol.
  • Win probability leans Sozopol's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Third League - South-East 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Nesebar Clean Sheet 20%
Sozopol Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nesebar Sozopol
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 24 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 3.09 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.79 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 1, 2026 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Sozopol
0:0
Sep 20, 2025 Third League - South-East
Sozopol vs Nesebar
1:2
Jan 29, 2025 Club Friendly
Nesebar vs Sozopol
0:0
Jul 12, 2024 Club Friendly
Nesebar vs Sozopol
2:0
May 2, 2024 Third League - South-East
Nesebar vs Sozopol
5:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nesebar 16 / 100
Sozopol 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nesebar Sozopol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOZ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nesebar scored in 85% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Nesebar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Sozopol's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nesebar VS Sozopol
4 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nesebar

(Home)
10 Aug
Nesebar
2 : 0
Dobrudzha
04 Aug
Montana
3 : 1
Nesebar
25 Jul
Nesebar
1 : 5
Etar
08 Jul
Spartak Varna
1 : 1
Nesebar
01 Jul
Ludogorets II
1 : 1
Nesebar
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Sozopol

(Away)
08 Aug
Spartak Plovdiv
4 : 3
Sozopol
27 May
Sozopol
4 : 1
Rakovski 2011
23 May
Sekirovo Rakovski
0 : 1
Sozopol
16 May
Sozopol
1 : 0
OFC Haskovo
13 May
Lok. Plovdiv II
0 : 0
Sozopol
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nesebar 36 29 4 3 116:22 91
2 Maritsa Plovdiv 36 23 6 7 90:40 75
3 Neftochimic Burgas 36 19 9 8 53:39 66
4 Yambol 1915 36 20 6 10 72:41 66
5 Levski Karlovo 36 20 5 11 64:53 65
6 Maritsa Milevo 36 17 9 10 64:32 60
7 Spartak Plovdiv 36 15 9 12 64:58 54
8 Sozopol 36 16 6 14 50:38 54
9 OFC Haskovo 36 15 7 14 52:48 52
10 Zagorets 36 13 10 13 52:60 49
11 Rozova Dolina 36 14 6 16 45:52 48
12 Gigant Saedinenie 36 14 5 17 56:59 47
13 Rodopa Smolyan 36 14 4 18 51:70 46
14 Atletik Kuklen 36 13 3 20 43:78 42
15 Sekirovo Rakovski 36 9 8 19 30:53 35
16 Dimitrovgrad 36 10 5 21 42:82 35
17 Lok. Plovdiv II 36 9 6 21 44:53 33
18 Rakovski 2011 36 8 3 25 46:94 27
19 Asenovets 36 6 5 25 30:92 23
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