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Netherlands U18 vs Italy U18 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2024 Sportpark Duinwetering, Noordwijk
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Match Events

58' Event
Castiello A.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Netherlands U18 and Italy U18 finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy U18.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Netherlands U18
15%
Draws
46%
Italy U18
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy U18

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Netherlands U18 come out ahead of Italy U18 on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Netherlands U18 taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Netherlands U18 Clean Sheet 18%
Italy U18 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Netherlands U18 Italy U18
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 4 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.93 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2024 Friendly International
Netherlands U18 vs Italy U18
0:1
Sep 7, 2024 Friendly International
Netherlands U18 vs Italy U18
2:0
Sep 10, 2023 Friendly International
Italy U18 vs Netherlands U18
0:0
Sep 6, 2021 Friendly International
Netherlands U18 vs Italy U18
5:0
Mar 22, 2019 Friendly International
Netherlands U18 vs Italy U18
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Netherlands U18 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Italy U18 Compare

Top Goalscorer Castiello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands U18 36 / 100
Italy U18 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Netherlands U18 Italy U18

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands U18 found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Italy U18 conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Netherlands U18 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Netherlands U18 VS Italy U18
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Netherlands U18

(Home)
06 Oct
USA U18
3 : 2
Netherlands U18
03 Oct
Ireland U18
0 : 1
Netherlands U18
30 Sept
Netherlands U18
2 : 1
Norway U18
17 Nov
Sweden U18
2 : 2
Netherlands U18
13 Nov
Netherlands U18
2 : 1
Germany U18
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Italy U18

(Away)
05 Oct
Hungary U18
1 : 3
Italy U18
02 Oct
Saudi Arabia U18
0 : 2
Italy U18
29 Sept
Italy U18
3 : 1
Denmark U18
26 Sept
Chile U17
1 : 2
Italy U18
30 Aug
Italy U18
1 : 4
Morocco U20
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