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Netherlands vs Ecuador

World World

Friendly International Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Pacho W.
Own Goal
12'
Dumfries D.
17'
Sub
Malen D. In: Geertruida L.
Out: Malen D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Netherlands
30%
Draws
23%
Ecuador
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Netherlands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Netherlands have won more games recently than Ecuador.
  • Win probability leans Netherlands's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 20%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Netherlands Ecuador
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 10
Draws 10 13
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 2.37 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Ecuador
1:1
Nov 25, 2022 World Championship
Netherlands vs Ecuador
1:1
May 17, 2014 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Ecuador
1:1
Mar 1, 2006 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Ecuador
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands 85 / 100
Ecuador 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Netherlands Ecuador

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Netherlands Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.

Netherlands has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Ecuador has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Netherlands VS Ecuador
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Netherlands

(Home)
04 Oct
Netherlands
2 : 1
Serbia
01 Oct
Greece
2 : 2
Netherlands
27 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Netherlands
24 Sept
Netherlands
1 : 1
Germany
30 Jun
Netherlands
1 : 2
Morocco
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Ecuador

(Away)
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
24 Sept
South Korea
3 : 0
Ecuador
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
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