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Netherlands vs Morocco

World World

World Championship 2026 Estadio BBVA
Tue, Jun 30, 2026
1 - 2
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Netherlands play Morocco in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Netherlands averaged 2.37 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Morocco averaged 2.13 goals scored and 0.43 conceded. In past meetings, Netherlands won 2, Morocco won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 30, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Netherlands and 1.81 for Morocco. This points to a Morocco double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Netherlands
16%
Draws
49%
Morocco
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Morocco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Netherlands picked up more points recently compared to Morocco.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Netherlands Clean Sheet 11%
Morocco Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 73%
Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Netherlands Morocco
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 25
Draws 9 5
Losses 6 0
Goals Scored 2.37 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2026 World Championship
Netherlands vs Morocco
1:2
May 31, 2017 Friendly International
Morocco vs Netherlands
1:2
Apr 27, 1999 Friendly International
Netherlands vs Morocco
1:2
Jun 29, 1994 World Championship
Morocco vs Netherlands
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Netherlands Compare

Top Goalscorer Gakpo C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Morocco Compare

Top Goalscorer Diop I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Netherlands 34 / 100
Morocco 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Netherlands Morocco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Morocco or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Netherlands attacking → ← attacking Morocco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Netherlands scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Morocco let in goals in 37% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Netherlands went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Morocco lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 80
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38