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New Caledonia vs Jamaica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

World Championship 2026 Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Cadamarteri B.
46'
Sub
Brooks A. In: De Cordova-Reid B.
Out: Brooks A.
68'
Sub
Katrawa J. In: Waia G.
Out: Katrawa J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Jamaica advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
New Caledonia
20%
Draws
58%
Jamaica
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jamaica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Jamaica come out ahead of New Caledonia on wins alone.
  • Model gives Jamaica a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Jamaica arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Jamaica, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 21%
Jamaica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Caledonia Jamaica
Matches Played 21 29
Wins 12 15
Draws 1 6
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 2.19 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.43 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.41 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Jamaica
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Caledonia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.32
Avg xA / game 0.2

Jamaica Compare

Top Goalscorer Cadamarteri B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Caledonia 29 / 100
Jamaica 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Caledonia Jamaica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jamaica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Caledonia found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (21 games).

Jamaica has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

New Caledonia has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

New Caledonia VS Jamaica
0.57 Goals Scored 0.88
1.43 Goals Conceded 0.25
57% Over 1.5 38%
43% Over 2.5 0%
14% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

New Caledonia

(Home)
30 Sept
Fiji
2 : 1
New Caledonia
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
Page 1 of 5

Jamaica

(Away)
06 Oct
Honduras
1 : 1
Jamaica
03 Oct
El Salvador
0 : 2
Jamaica
29 Sept
Jamaica
0 : 1
Honduras
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
06 Jun
Jamaica
1 : 1
South Africa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
D.R. Congo -
TBD -
New Caledonia 0
Jamaica 1
Iraq -
TBD -
Bolivia 2
Suriname 1
Final
D.R. Congo 1
Jamaica 0
Iraq 2
Bolivia 1