Sport Picks
New Caledonia vs Papua New Guinea
World
World Championship 2026 HFC Bank Stadium, Suva 
Match Events
20'
20'
Athale J.
(Penalty)
45'
45'
Gope-Fenepej G.
51'
51'
Sub
Kepo A. In: Naime R.
Out: Kepo A.
AI Match Summary
New Caledonia in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Caledonia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Caledonia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to New Caledonia lately — more wins on the board than Papua New Guinea.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 20%
Papua New Guinea Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | New Caledonia | Papua New Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 20 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 1 | 6 |
| Losses | 7 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.25 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 24, 2026 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
1:2
Nov 11, 2025 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
0:0
Oct 10, 2024 World Championship
New Caledonia vs Papua New Guinea
3:1
Oct 11, 2023 Friendly International
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
1:3
Mar 21, 2022 World Championship
Papua New Guinea vs New Caledonia
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
New Caledonia Compare
Top Goalscorer Gope-Fenepej G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Haewegene G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Papua New Guinea Compare
Top Goalscorer Semmy T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
New Caledonia 32 / 100
Papua New Guinea 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
New Caledonia Papua New Guinea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Papua New Guinea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
New Caledonia found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (20 games).
Papua New Guinea has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Papua New Guinea lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
New Caledonia VS Papua New Guinea
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
New Caledonia
(Home) 27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1 New Caledonia
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2 New Caledonia
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2 Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1 Jamaica
08 Oct
Gibraltar
0 : 2 New Caledonia
Page 1 of 4
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2 Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1 Jamaica
24 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 3 New Zealand
21 Mar
New Caledonia
3 : 0 Tahiti
10 Oct
New Caledonia
3 : 1 Papua New Guinea
Page 1 of 2
Papua New Guinea
(Away) 27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0 Papua New Guinea
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2 New Caledonia
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1 Vanuatu
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3 Vanuatu
20 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 0 Fiji
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Fiji
2 : 0 Papua New Guinea
21 Dec
Vanuatu
1 : 2 Papua New Guinea
18 Dec
Solomon Islands
2 : 3 Papua New Guinea
09 Dec
Solomon Islands U23
0 : 1 Papua New Guinea
10 Oct
New Caledonia
3 : 1 Papua New Guinea
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Caledonia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 2 | Fiji | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:4 | 5 |
| 3 | Solomon Islands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:8 | 1 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Tahiti | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Vanuatu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 4 | Samoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:15 | 0 |
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)
