Sport Picks
New Mexico vs Lexington Prediction & H2H Stats
USA
USL Championship Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque, NM 
Match Events
10'
10'
Semmle O.
29'
29'
Hurst G.
46'
46'
Sub
Fry M. In: Ferri B.
Out: Fry M.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between New Mexico and Lexington finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward New Mexico.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
18%
30%
52%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lexington
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and New Mexico come out ahead of Lexington on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Lexington's way, sitting at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors New Mexico here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
New Mexico Clean Sheet 12%
Lexington Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | New Mexico | Lexington |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.65 | 1.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 27, 2026 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Lexington
2:1
Jul 15, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs New Mexico
1:4
Sep 28, 2025 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Lexington
2:1
Jun 14, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs New Mexico
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
New Mexico Compare
Top Goalscorer Keller K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Reid-Stephen N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Muir M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
New Mexico 10 / 100
Lexington 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
New Mexico Lexington
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.
New Mexico found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).
Lexington has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.
New Mexico went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
New Mexico VS Lexington
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
New Mexico
(Home) 01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Colorado Springs
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
12 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 2 Indy Eleven
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
12 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 2 Indy Eleven
30 Aug
New Mexico
1 : 2 San Antonio FC
27 Aug
New Mexico
2 : 1 Lexington
16 Aug
New Mexico
1 : 0 FC Tulsa
Page 1 of 4
Lexington
(Away) 27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
13 Sept
Oakland Roots
1 : 4 Lexington
05 Sept
Sporting Jax
3 : 2 Lexington
27 Aug
New Mexico
2 : 1 Lexington
16 Aug
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Lexington
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 45:23 | 52 |
| 2 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32:20 | 44 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 32:32 | 33 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:44 | 33 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 36:42 | 23 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 31:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26:52 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 45:32 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 39:31 | 43 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 36:24 | 43 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 31:24 | 41 |
| 5 | Lexington | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 46:32 | 40 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 40:37 | 39 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 35:40 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 29:28 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 34:38 | 33 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:35 | 33 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 35:38 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27:46 | 18 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
