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New Mills vs Ashton United

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Club Friendly 2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Mills play Ashton United in the Club Friendly 2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, New Mills averaged 1.5 goals scored and 2.41 conceded. Ashton United averaged 1.68 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, New Mills won 0, Ashton United won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 4, 2015 ended 0:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for New Mills and 1.05 for Ashton United. This points to a Ashton United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
New Mills
19%
Draws
51%
Ashton United
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Ashton United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • New Mills picked up more points recently compared to Ashton United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.05 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
New Mills Clean Sheet 22%
Ashton United Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Mills Ashton United
Matches Played 22 41
Wins 7 17
Draws 2 10
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.5 1.68
Goals Conceded 2.41 1.37

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2015 Club Friendly
New Mills vs Ashton United
0:5

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Mills 31 / 100
Ashton United 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Mills Ashton United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ashton United or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

New Mills attacking → ← attacking Ashton United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Mills scored in 64% of their last 22 games.

Ashton United let in goals in 80% of their last 41 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

New Mills went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ashton United lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 61
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38