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New Zealand U23 vs Samoa Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Zealand U23 in this Pacific Games 2019 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Zealand U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
New Zealand U23
15%
Draws
28%
Samoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Zealand U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • New Zealand U23 have won more games recently than Samoa.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on New Zealand U23 taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 52.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
New Zealand U23 Clean Sheet 13%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand U23 Samoa
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 3 1
Losses 4 18
Goals Scored 3.77 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.85 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 3.10 1.67
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2019 Pacific Games
New Zealand U23 vs Samoa
5:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand U23 84 / 100
Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand U23 Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Zealand U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: New Zealand U23 scored in 92% of their last 26 outings.

Defensive concern: Samoa conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

New Zealand U23 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New Zealand U23 VS Samoa
4.33 Goals Scored 2.5
0.83 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
67% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

New Zealand U23

(Home)
18 Jul
Uzbekistan U23
3 : 1
New Zealand U23
09 Sept
New Zealand U23
9 : 0
Fiji U23
06 Sept
New Zealand U23
8 : 0
Vanuatu U23
30 Aug
New Zealand U23
3 : 1
Fiji U23
27 Aug
New Zealand U23
3 : 0
Papua New Guinea U23
Page 1 of 6

Samoa

(Away)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand U23 4 3 1 0 20:1 10
2 Papua New Guinea 4 3 0 1 16:2 9
3 Vanuatu 4 2 1 1 25:2 7
4 Samoa 4 1 0 3 3:22 3
5 Tonga 4 0 0 4 0:37 0
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 5 5 0 0 22:0 15
2 Fiji 5 3 1 1 25:7 10
3 Tahiti 5 3 0 2 19:6 9
4 Solomon Islands 5 2 1 2 30:9 7
5 American Samoa 5 0 1 4 2:36 1
6 Tuvalu 5 0 1 4 2:42 1
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)