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New Zealand vs Australia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2025 Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Singh S.
24'
Metcalfe C.
35' Event
Toure M.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2025 game between New Zealand and Australia finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Australia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
New Zealand
30%
Draws
16%
Australia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: New Zealand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Australia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans New Zealand's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Australia have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 68%
Australia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand Australia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 15
Draws 4 7
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 2.17 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2025 Friendly International
New Zealand vs Australia
1:3
Sep 5, 2025 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
1:0
Oct 17, 2023 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
2:0
Sep 25, 2022 Friendly International
New Zealand vs Australia
0:2
Sep 22, 2022 Friendly International
Australia vs New Zealand
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Zealand Compare

Top Goalscorer Wood Ch.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Australia Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Irankunda N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand 50 / 100
Australia 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand Australia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick New Zealand Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Zealand's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: New Zealand remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Australia's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

New Zealand VS Australia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 25%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

New Zealand

(Home)
05 Oct
Japan
2 : 1
New Zealand
01 Oct
Panama
1 : 2
New Zealand
27 Sept
China
0 : 3
New Zealand
24 Sept
Palestine
2 : 2
New Zealand
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
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Australia

(Away)
29 Sept
Australia
2 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
Australia
1 : 1
Brazil
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
26 Jun
Paraguay
0 : 0
Australia
19 Jun
USA
2 : 0
Australia
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