Sport Picks

Stadium Background

New Zealand vs Finland

World World

FIFA Series Eden Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

New Zealand play Finland in the FIFA Series. It looks like a close match. Recently, New Zealand averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Finland averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, New Zealand won 0, Finland won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 27, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for New Zealand and 1.63 for Finland. This points to a New Zealand double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
New Zealand
15%
Draws
39%
Finland
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: New Zealand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • New Zealand picked up more points recently compared to Finland.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 14%
Finland Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand Finland
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 3 2
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 2.3 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 FIFA Series
New Zealand vs Finland
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Zealand Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Finland Compare

Top Goalscorer Pohjanpalo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Oksanen J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand 44 / 100
Finland 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand Finland

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: New Zealand or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

New Zealand attacking → ← attacking Finland

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

New Zealand scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Finland let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

New Zealand went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Finland lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 29
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88