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New Zealand vs Vanuatu

World World

World Championship 2026 Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Garbett M.
17' Event
Tasip J.
23' Event
Wood Ch.
Assist: Cacace L.

AI Match Summary

New Zealand in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 8-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Zealand.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
New Zealand
20%
Draws
74%
Vanuatu
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • New Zealand have won more games recently than Vanuatu.
  • Vanuatu are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors New Zealand here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 10%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric New Zealand Vanuatu
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 12 10
Draws 3 4
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 2.14 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.28 2.11
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 World Championship
New Zealand vs Vanuatu
8:1
Jun 30, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
New Zealand vs Vanuatu
3:0
Jun 21, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Vanuatu vs New Zealand
0:4
May 31, 2016 World Championship
Vanuatu vs New Zealand
0:5
Nov 21, 2007 World Championship
New Zealand vs Vanuatu
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

New Zealand Compare

Top Goalscorer Wood Ch.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bindon T.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41

Vanuatu Compare

Top Goalscorer Tasip J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

New Zealand 10 / 100
Vanuatu 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
New Zealand Vanuatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 5.20 goals.

New Zealand found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

New Zealand went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

New Zealand VS Vanuatu
0.5 Goals Scored 2
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.17
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

New Zealand

(Home)
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
22 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 3
Egypt
16 Jun
Iran
2 : 2
New Zealand
06 Jun
England
1 : 0
New Zealand
03 Jun
Haiti
4 : 0
New Zealand
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Vanuatu

(Away)
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
20 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Solomon Islands
17 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 0
Fiji
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 3 2 1 0 7:4 7
2 Fiji 3 1 2 0 5:4 5
3 Solomon Islands 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
4 Papua New Guinea 3 0 1 2 5:8 1
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand 3 3 0 0 19:1 9
2 Tahiti 3 2 0 1 5:3 6
3 Vanuatu 3 1 0 2 5:11 3
4 Samoa 3 0 0 3 1:15 0
Promotion - World Championship 2026 (Third stage)