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Newcastle Croatia vs Cessnock City Hornets

Australia Australia

Northern NSW State League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Croatia in this Northern NSW State League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Croatia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Newcastle Croatia
15%
Draws
32%
Cessnock City Hornets
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newcastle Croatia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Newcastle Croatia have won more games recently than Cessnock City Hornets.
  • Newcastle Croatia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Newcastle Croatia Clean Sheet 15%
Cessnock City Hornets Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Croatia Cessnock City Hornets
Matches Played 21 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 1 5
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 2.62 1.5
Goals Conceded 2.24 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Northern NSW State League
Cessnock City Hornets vs Newcastle Croatia
1:2
May 17, 2026 Northern NSW State League
Newcastle Croatia vs Cessnock City Hornets
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Croatia 84 / 100
Cessnock City Hornets 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Croatia Cessnock City Hornets

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newcastle Croatia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Croatia found the back of the net in 95% of recent matches (21 games).

Cessnock City Hornets has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Newcastle Croatia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Croatia VS Cessnock City Hornets
2.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 3
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Croatia

(Home)
05 Sept
Kahibah
2 : 1
Newcastle Croatia
30 Aug
Wallsend Red Devils
2 : 3
Newcastle Croatia
22 Aug
Newcastle Croatia
6 : 6
Wallsend Red Devils
15 Aug
Newcastle Croatia
3 : 1
Wallsend Red Devils
08 Aug
Cessnock City Hornets
1 : 2
Newcastle Croatia
Page 1 of 5

Cessnock City Hornets

(Away)
15 Aug
New Lambton
4 : 3
Cessnock City Hornets
08 Aug
Cessnock City Hornets
1 : 2
Newcastle Croatia
26 Jul
Wallsend Red Devils
7 : 3
Cessnock City Hornets
18 Jul
Cessnock City Hornets
3 : 2
West Wallsend FC
11 Jul
Cessnock City Hornets
2 : 1
Dudley Redhead United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lake Macquarie 18 13 2 3 64:24 41
2 Wallsend Red Devils 18 12 4 2 58:26 40
3 Newcastle Croatia 18 11 0 7 45:37 33
4 New Lambton 18 10 2 6 41:30 32
5 Dudley Redhead United 18 8 4 6 26:26 28
6 Cessnock City Hornets 18 6 2 10 31:40 20
7 West Wallsend FC 18 5 4 9 27:47 19
8 Singleton Strikers 18 5 3 10 20:42 18
9 South Cardiff 18 3 4 11 15:32 13
10 Toronto Awaba Stags 18 4 1 13 23:46 13
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW (Main)
Promotion - NPL Northern NSW (Relegation)