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Newcastle Croatia vs Cessnock City Hornets

Australia Australia

Northern NSW State League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Croatia in this Northern NSW State League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Croatia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Newcastle Croatia
6%
Draws
4%
Cessnock City Hornets
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Newcastle Croatia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Cessnock City Hornets have won more games recently than Newcastle Croatia.
  • Newcastle Croatia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Newcastle Croatia Clean Sheet 14%
Cessnock City Hornets Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Croatia Cessnock City Hornets
Matches Played 13 28
Wins 7 8
Draws 0 5
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 3 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.38 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Northern NSW State League
Newcastle Croatia vs Cessnock City Hornets
3:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Croatia 84 / 100
Cessnock City Hornets 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Croatia Cessnock City Hornets

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEW Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Croatia found the back of the net in 92% of recent matches (13 games).

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Cessnock City Hornets has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Newcastle Croatia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Croatia VS Cessnock City Hornets
3 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
88% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wallsend Red Devils1393137:1730
2Lake Macquarie1391348:1928
3New Lambton1372429:1923
4Newcastle Croatia1370632:3121
5Dudley Redhead United1363420:2021
6West Wallsend FC1353524:3218
7Cessnock City Hornets1342719:2414
8Singleton Strikers1333714:3012
9South Cardiff1331911:2410
10Toronto Awaba Stags13301016:349