Sport Picks
Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide Utd
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle 
Match Events
37'
37'
Sub
Dobson W. In: Clough Z.
Out: Dobson W.
48'
48'
White R.
53'
53'
Sub
Gibson B. In: Rose L.
Out: Gibson B.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Adelaide Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Newcastle Jets have won more games recently than Adelaide Utd.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Newcastle Jets Clean Sheet 10%
Adelaide Utd Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newcastle Jets | Adelaide Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 12 |
| Draws | 4 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.66 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.73 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide Utd
1:1
Feb 8, 2026 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Newcastle Jets
2:3
Jul 30, 2025 Australia Cup
Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide Utd
2:1
Feb 15, 2025 A-League
Adelaide Utd vs Newcastle Jets
1:2
Dec 7, 2024 A-League
Newcastle Jets vs Adelaide Utd
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newcastle Jets Compare
Top Goalscorer Wilmering D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Adelaide Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer White R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newcastle Jets 30 / 100
Adelaide Utd 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newcastle Jets Adelaide Utd
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Adelaide Utd Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newcastle Jets found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).
Adelaide Utd let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Away concern: Adelaide Utd has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Newcastle Jets VS Adelaide Utd
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Newcastle Jets
(Home) 15 Sept
Kashima Antlers
7 : 1 Newcastle Jets
21 Jul
Preston Lions
3 : 2 Newcastle Jets
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
09 May
Sydney FC
1 : 1 Newcastle Jets
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
Page 1 of 6
16 May
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Sydney FC
25 Apr
Newcastle Jets
4 : 0 Central Coast
11 Apr
Newcastle Jets
1 : 1 Adelaide Utd
14 Mar
Newcastle Jets
1 : 2 Auckland FC
07 Mar
Newcastle Jets
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
Page 1 of 3
Adelaide Utd
(Away) 27 Sept
Perth Glory
2 : 0 Adelaide Utd
17 Sept
Adelaide Utd
3 : 0 Tai Po
11 Aug
Adelaide Utd
0 : 2 Cong An Ha Noi
30 Jul
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Adelaide Utd
20 Jul
Playford Patriots
0 : 2 Adelaide Utd
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Perth Glory
2 : 0 Adelaide Utd
30 Jul
South Melbourne
2 : 1 Adelaide Utd
20 Jul
Playford Patriots
0 : 2 Adelaide Utd
14 Jul
The Cove FC
0 : 5 Adelaide Utd
09 May
Auckland FC
1 : 1 Adelaide Utd
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
