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Newcastle Town vs FC Congleton Town

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Club Friendly 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Town play FC Congleton Town in the Club Friendly 2021. It looks like a close match. Recently, Newcastle Town averaged 1.03 goals scored and 2.28 conceded. FC Congleton Town averaged 1.7 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Newcastle Town won 0, FC Congleton Town won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 20, 2022 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Newcastle Town and 1.94 for FC Congleton Town. This points to a FC Congleton Town double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Newcastle Town
21%
Draws
54%
FC Congleton Town
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: FC Congleton Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence
  • Newcastle Town picked up more points recently compared to FC Congleton Town.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Newcastle Town Clean Sheet 10%
FC Congleton Town Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Town FC Congleton Town
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 6 15
Draws 6 3
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.03 1.7
Goals Conceded 2.28 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2022 FA Cup
FC Congleton Town vs Newcastle Town
3:2
Sep 17, 2022 FA Cup
Newcastle Town vs FC Congleton Town
1:1
Jul 17, 2021 Club Friendly
Newcastle Town vs FC Congleton Town
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newcastle Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Van Der Laan J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baxter R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

FC Congleton Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Bott A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Town 25 / 100
FC Congleton Town 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Town FC Congleton Town

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Congleton Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick FC Congleton Town & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Newcastle Town attacking → ← attacking FC Congleton Town

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Town scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

FC Congleton Town let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Newcastle Town went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

FC Congleton Town lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 48
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75