Sport Picks

England

FA Cup 2025/2026 St. James' Park, Newcastle

Newcastle Utd

1 - 3

Manchester City

Our Tip

Match Events

18'

Barnes H.

Assist: Tonali S.

39'

Sávio

Assist: Doku J.

47'

Marmoush O.

Assist: Nunes M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-3, with Manchester City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Newcastle Utd

15%

Draws

51%

Manchester City

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Manchester City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and Manchester City come out ahead of Newcastle Utd on wins alone.
51% — that's where the model lands on Manchester City taking it.
Manchester City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Manchester City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Manchester City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%

Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Manchester City Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Newcastle Utd	Manchester City
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	11	21
Draws	5	4
Losses	15	5
Goals Scored	1.48	2.1
Goals Conceded	1.81	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 FA Cup

Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City

1:3

Feb 21, 2026 Premier League

Manchester City vs Newcastle Utd

2:1

Feb 4, 2026 EFL Cup

Manchester City vs Newcastle Utd

3:1

Jan 13, 2026 EFL Cup

Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City

0:2

Nov 22, 2025 Premier League

Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newcastle Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Barnes H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Manchester City Compare

Top Goalscorer Marmoush O.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Sávio

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Utd 10 / 100

Manchester City 83 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Newcastle Utd Manchester City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manchester City Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Utd scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Manchester City conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Newcastle Utd stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Utd VS Manchester City

1.75 Goals Scored 2.25

1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75

100% Over 1.5 75%

88% Over 2.5 63%

50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

(Home)

19 Sept

Newcastle Utd

2 : 1

Hull City

14 Sept

Leeds

4 : 1

Newcastle Utd

08 Sept

Millwall

0 : 1

Newcastle Utd

05 Sept

Newcastle Utd

2 : 2

Bournemouth

29 Aug

Tottenham

0 : 2

Newcastle Utd

Page 1 of 7

Manchester City

(Away)

20 Sept

Manchester City

5 : 3

Sunderland

17 Sept

Manchester City

5 : 0

Norwich

13 Sept

Manchester United

0 : 1

Manchester City

08 Sept

FC Porto

0 : 2

Manchester City

05 Sept

Manchester City

1 : 0

Coventry

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 1

Scunthorpe 0

Reading 2

Carlisle 3

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 5

Maldon & Tiptree 1

Bromley 1

Bristol Rovers 2

Fleetwood Town 2

Barnet 1

Luton 4

Forest Green 3

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Colchester 2

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 3

Northampton 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Crawley Town 0

Newport 3

Gillingham 2

Brackley 3

Notts County 2

Burton 6

St. Albans 0

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 2

Altrincham 1

Macclesfield 6

AFC Totton 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Tranmere 1

Stockport County 3

Cambridge Utd 3

Chester 0

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

AFC Wimbledon 0

Gateshead 2

Eastleigh 0

Walsall 3

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Halifax 0

Exeter 2

Wycombe 2

Plymouth 0

Salford 2

Lincoln City 1

Tamworth 0

Leyton Orient 1

Rotherham 1

Swindon 2

Bolton 2

Huddersfield 1

Grimsby 3

Ebbsfleet 1

Wealdstone 1

Southend 0

Chelmsford 4

Braintree 1

Weston-super-Mare 2

Aldershot 1

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 2

Telford 1

South Shields 1

Shrewsbury 3

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 1

Cardiff 0

Barnsley 3

York City 2

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Stevenage 0

Chesterfield 1

Crewe 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 1

Bradford City 0

Buxton 2

Chatham 1

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Gainsborough 1

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Harrogate 2

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 2

Hemel Hempstead 1

Spennymoor 0

Barrow 2

1/64-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 4

Carlisle 1

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 1

Bristol Rovers 0

Fleetwood Town 3

Luton 2

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Newport 0

Brackley 1

Burton 3

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 1

Macclesfield 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Stockport County 0

Cambridge Utd 1

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

Gateshead 0

Walsall 2

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Exeter 4

Wycombe 0

Salford 4

Leyton Orient 0

Swindon 4

Bolton 0

Grimsby 4

Wealdstone 0

Chelmsford 0

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 1

Shrewsbury 2

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 0

Barnsley 1

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Chesterfield 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 6

Buxton 2

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 3

Barrow 2

1/32-finals

Wrexham 4

Nottingham 3

Ipswich 2

Blackpool 1

Hull City 1

Blackburn 0

Charlton 1

Chelsea 5

Port Vale 1

Fleetwood Town 0

Bristol City 5

Watford 1

Milton Keynes Dons 1

Oxford Utd 2

Everton 1

Sunderland 2

Boreham Wood 0

Burton 5

West Ham 2

QPR 1

Macclesfield 2

Crystal Palace 1

Sheffield Wed 0

Brentford 2

Cambridge Utd 2

Birmingham 3

Derby 1

Leeds 3

Norwich 5

Walsall 1

Swansea 2

West Brom 3

Tottenham 1

Aston Villa 2

Newcastle Utd 4

Bournemouth 3

Manchester City 10

Exeter 1

Salford 3

Swindon 2

Grimsby 3

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves 6

Shrewsbury 1

Liverpool 4

Barnsley 1

Manchester United 1

Brighton 2

Stoke City 1

Coventry 0

Fulham 3

Middlesbrough 1

Doncaster 2

Southampton 3

Cheltenham 0

Leicester 2

Burnley 5

Millwall 1

Sheffield Utd 3

Mansfield 4

Portsmouth 1

Arsenal 4

Preston 0

Wigan 1

1/16-finals

Wrexham 1

Ipswich 0

Hull City 0

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Bristol City 0

Oxford Utd 0

Sunderland 1

Burton 0

West Ham 1

Macclesfield 0

Brentford 1

Birmingham 1

Leeds 2

Norwich 3

West Brom 1

Aston Villa 1

Newcastle Utd 3

Manchester City 2

Salford 0

Grimsby 0

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Brighton 0

Stoke City 1

Fulham 2

Southampton 2

Leicester 1

Burnley 1

Mansfield 2

Arsenal 4

Wigan 0

1/8-finals

Wrexham 2

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Sunderland 0

West Ham 3

Brentford 2

Leeds 3

Norwich 0

Newcastle Utd 1

Manchester City 3

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Fulham 0

Southampton 1

Mansfield 1

Arsenal 2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea 7

Port Vale 0

West Ham 2

Leeds 3

Manchester City 4

Liverpool 0

Southampton 2

Arsenal 1

Semi-finals

Chelsea 1

Leeds 0

Manchester City 2

Southampton 1

Final

Chelsea 0

Manchester City 1

Newcastle Utd vs Manchester City

England

Newcastle Utd

Manchester City

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Newcastle Utd Compare

Manchester City Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

Manchester City

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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