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Newcastle Utd vs Qarabag Agdam

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Champions League 2025/2026 St. James' Park, Newcastle
Newcastle Utd Logo

Newcastle Utd

3 - 2
FT
Qarabag Agdam Logo

Qarabag Agdam

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Tonali S.
Assist: Osula W.
6' Event
Joelinton
Assist: Barnes H.
51' Event
Duran C.
Assist: Montiel J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newcastle Utd in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Newcastle Utd
20%
Draws
40%
Qarabag Agdam
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Qarabag Agdam lately — more wins on the board than Newcastle Utd.
  • Model gives Newcastle Utd a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Qarabag Agdam arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Newcastle Utd, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 68%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newcastle Utd Qarabag Agdam
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.61 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 24, 2026 Champions League
Newcastle Utd vs Qarabag Agdam
3:2
Feb 18, 2026 Champions League
Qarabag Agdam vs Newcastle Utd
1:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newcastle Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Tonali S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joelinton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Duran C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cafarquliyev E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newcastle Utd 50 / 100
Qarabag Agdam 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newcastle Utd Qarabag Agdam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newcastle Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newcastle Utd's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Qarabag Agdam conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Newcastle Utd has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Newcastle Utd VS Qarabag Agdam
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Newcastle Utd

(Home)
19 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 1
Hull City
14 Sept
Leeds
4 : 1
Newcastle Utd
08 Sept
Millwall
0 : 1
Newcastle Utd
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2
Bournemouth
29 Aug
Tottenham
0 : 2
Newcastle Utd
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Qarabag Agdam

(Away)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4
Twente
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1