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Newells Old Boys vs Lanus

Argentina Argentina

Liga Profesional Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newells Old Boys host Lanus in the Liga Profesional. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Newells Old Boys at 0.97 goals for, 1.31 against; Lanus at 1 for, 1 against. Head-to-head, Newells Old Boys have won 3 to Lanus's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 17, 2026, ending 5:0. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 0.94) point toward Lanus. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Newells Old Boys
35%
Draws
34%
Lanus
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lanus come out ahead of Newells Old Boys on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga Profesional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Newells Old Boys Clean Sheet 20%
Lanus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newells Old Boys Lanus
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 8 14
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1
Goals Conceded 1.31 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Liga Profesional
Lanus vs Newells Old Boys
5:0
Oct 5, 2024 Liga Profesional
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus
2:1
Jan 31, 2024 Copa de la Liga Profesional
Lanus vs Newells Old Boys
0:2
Aug 26, 2023 Copa de la Liga Profesional
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus
1:0
May 21, 2023 Liga Profesional
Lanus vs Newells Old Boys
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newells Old Boys 32 / 100
Lanus 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newells Old Boys Lanus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Newells Old Boys stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Newells Old Boys scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Lanus has conceded goals in 56% of their last 34 outings.

Scoring Trends

Newells Old Boys VS Lanus
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Newells Old Boys

(Home)
20 Sept
Platense
0 : 1
Newells Old Boys
11 Sept
Newells Old Boys
1 : 1
Velez Sarsfield
06 Sept
Rosario Central
1 : 1
Newells Old Boys
31 Aug
Estudiantes L.P.
0 : 0
Newells Old Boys
23 Aug
Newells Old Boys
2 : 1
Banfield
Page 1 of 6

Lanus

(Away)
22 Sept
Lanus
2 : 1
Estudiantes L.P.
14 Sept
Deportivo Riestra
0 : 3
Lanus
06 Sept
Lanus
1 : 0
Defensa y Justicia
29 Aug
Boca Juniors
1 : 0
Lanus
25 Aug
Lanus
1 : 1
Argentinos Jrs
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Instituto 10 7 1 2 13:7 22
2 Velez Sarsfield 10 5 5 0 15:9 20
3 Defensa y Justicia 10 5 3 2 13:11 18
4 Gimnasia Mendoza 10 5 2 3 14:9 17
5 Boca Juniors 10 4 5 1 14:11 17
6 Independiente 10 5 2 3 10:8 17
7 Lanus 10 5 1 4 13:9 16
8 Newells Old Boys 10 4 4 2 11:8 16
9 Union de Santa Fe 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
10 San Lorenzo 10 3 2 5 4:8 11
11 Estudiantes L.P. 10 3 1 6 10:11 10
12 Deportivo Riestra 10 2 4 4 8:10 10
13 Platense 10 2 3 5 9:15 9
14 Talleres Cordoba 10 2 2 6 11:17 8
15 Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero) 10 2 2 6 7:13 8
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentinos Jrs 10 5 3 2 13:9 18
2 Rosario Central 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Ind. Rivadavia 10 5 2 3 14:13 17
4 Gimnasia L.P. 10 5 2 3 15:15 17
5 CA Belgrano de Cordoba 10 4 4 2 11:7 16
6 Huracan 10 4 4 2 10:8 16
7 Sarmiento Junin 10 5 1 4 17:16 16
8 River Plate 10 4 1 5 13:12 13
9 Atl. Tucuman 10 3 4 3 7:6 13
10 Tigre 10 3 3 4 9:9 12
11 Barracas Central 10 3 3 4 5:7 12
12 Banfield 10 2 3 5 11:16 9
13 Aldosivi 10 2 2 6 12:16 8
14 Racing Club 10 2 2 6 11:16 8
15 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 10 1 3 6 5:13 6
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)