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Newells Old Boys vs Once Caldas

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newells Old Boys play Once Caldas in the Club Friendly 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Newells Old Boys averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Once Caldas averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Newells Old Boys won 0, Once Caldas won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jul 6, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Newells Old Boys and 1.50 for Once Caldas. This points to a Once Caldas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Newells Old Boys
35%
Draws
41%
Once Caldas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Once Caldas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Newells Old Boys picked up more points recently compared to Once Caldas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 36%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Newells Old Boys Clean Sheet 16%
Once Caldas Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newells Old Boys Once Caldas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 10
Draws 9 14
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 0.83 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Newells Old Boys vs Once Caldas
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newells Old Boys Compare

Top Goalscorer Gigena T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Once Caldas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newells Old Boys 25 / 100
Once Caldas 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newells Old Boys Once Caldas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Once Caldas or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +50%
6.25
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.9%
3.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Newells Old Boys attacking → ← attacking Once Caldas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newells Old Boys scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Once Caldas let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Newells Old Boys went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Once Caldas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 44
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50