Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Newport City vs Aberystwyth

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Mason T.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South 2025/2026 game between Newport City and Aberystwyth finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aberystwyth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Newport City
15%
Draws
57%
Aberystwyth
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Aberystwyth carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aberystwyth's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newport City Aberystwyth
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 6 3
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Aberystwyth
0:1
Oct 25, 2025 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Newport City
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newport City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Aberystwyth Compare

Top Goalscorer Mason T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newport City 14 / 100
Aberystwyth 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newport City Aberystwyth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aberystwyth has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Newport City found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Newport City went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newport City VS Aberystwyth
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Newport City

(Home)
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4
Newport City
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
31 Jul
Llanelli
1 : 4
Newport City
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Aberystwyth

(Away)
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
08 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 2
Treowen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)