Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Newport City vs Carmarthen Town

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Heffernan D.
Own Goal
36' Event
Phillips D.
75' Event
Ward G. A.

AI Match Summary

Carmarthen Town in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carmarthen Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Newport City
30%
Draws
39%
Carmarthen Town
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Carmarthen Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Carmarthen Town have won more games recently than Newport City.
  • 31% — that's where the model lands on Newport City taking it.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newport City Carmarthen Town
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.18 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.89 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
4:4
Sep 27, 2025 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
1:0
Mar 22, 2025 Cymru South
Newport City vs Carmarthen Town
3:0
Sep 14, 2024 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Newport City
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newport City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ward G. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Carmarthen Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Phillips D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newport City 56 / 100
Carmarthen Town 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newport City Carmarthen Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newport City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carmarthen Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Newport City's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Newport City has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Newport City VS Carmarthen Town
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Newport City

(Home)
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Newport City
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1
Baglan Dragons
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4
Newport City
08 Aug
Newport City
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
Page 1 of 6

Carmarthen Town

(Away)
25 Sept
Baglan Dragons
1 : 2
Carmarthen Town
12 Sept
Carmarthen Town
2 : 2
Ynyshir Albions
31 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Trethomas Bluebirds
28 Aug
Llanelli
2 : 2
Carmarthen Town
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 7 5 2 0 22:5 17
2 Aberystwyth 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
3 Pontypridd United 7 5 1 1 18:12 16
4 Carmarthen Town 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
5 Caerau Ely 8 4 1 3 19:18 13
6 Treowen 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
7 Baglan Dragons 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Afan Lido 9 3 2 4 13:15 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 15:14 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
11 Caerphilly 8 2 2 4 8:14 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 9:5 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
14 Pontardawe 7 2 0 5 11:14 6
15 Llantwit Major 6 1 1 4 4:15 4
16 Llanelli 9 0 2 7 6:25 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)