Sport Picks
Newport vs Colchester
England
League Two 2025/2026 Rodney Parade, Newport 
Match Events
35'
35'
Sub
Mbick M. In: Payne J.
Out: Mbick M.
57'
57'
Sub
Garner G. In: Lloyd B.
Out: Garner G.
58'
58'
Anderson H.
AI Match Summary
The League Two 2025/2026 game between Newport and Colchester finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Colchester.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
35%
18%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Newport
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Newport carry the better recent record into this one.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Newport taking it.
- Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Colchester here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Newport Clean Sheet 68%
Colchester Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newport | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 7, 2026 League Two
Newport vs Colchester
1:2
Dec 20, 2025 League Two
Colchester vs Newport
4:1
Apr 12, 2025 League Two
Newport vs Colchester
0:2
Dec 14, 2024 League Two
Colchester vs Newport
0:0
Mar 29, 2024 League Two
Colchester vs Newport
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newport Compare
Top Goalscorer Jenkins L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Colchester Compare
Top Goalscorer Anderson H.
1 Goals Assists Leader Payne J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newport 77 / 100
Colchester 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newport Colchester
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Newport Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newport's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Colchester has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Recent resilience: Newport stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Newport VS Colchester
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Newport
(Home) 26 Sept
Newport
2 : 1 Grimsby
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2 Newport
19 Sept
Accrington
0 : 0 Newport
12 Sept
Newport
1 : 1 Fleetwood Town
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Newport
2 : 1 Grimsby
12 Sept
Newport
1 : 1 Fleetwood Town
29 Aug
Newport
2 : 2 Tranmere
15 Aug
Newport
3 : 0 Rochdale
04 Aug
Newport
1 : 4 AS Roma
Page 1 of 3
Colchester
(Away) 26 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 2 Colchester
22 Sept
Peterborough
3 : 1 Colchester
19 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Cheltenham
12 Sept
Colchester
1 : 1 Crewe
05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 2 Colchester
22 Sept
Peterborough
3 : 1 Colchester
05 Sept
Swindon
3 : 1 Colchester
01 Sept
Bristol Rovers
2 : 0 Colchester
15 Aug
Accrington
2 : 2 Colchester
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bromley | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 87 |
| 2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts County | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley Town | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | 36 |
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)
