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Newroz vs Al Karma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Sat, Nov 21, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Newroz host Al Karma in the Stars League. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Al Karma have shipped 0.68 goals a game lately, while Newroz have conceded 0.74 and scored 1.39. Past meetings favor Al Karma slightly — 1-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 1, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 1.43) point toward Al Karma. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Newroz
30%
Draws
33%
Al Karma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Newroz have managed 1.39 goals a game lately — Al Karma are scoring more at 1.61.
  • Newroz are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Al Karma have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Newroz Clean Sheet 17%
Al Karma Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Al Karma
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 16 16
Draws 10 12
Losses 5 3
Goals Scored 1.39 1.61
Goals Conceded 0.74 0.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Stars League
Al Karma vs Newroz
0:1
Jan 27, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Karma
0:1
Mar 4, 2025 Stars League
Al Karma vs Newroz
2:0
Nov 6, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Karma
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 36 / 100
Al Karma 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Al Karma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Recent resilience: Newroz stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Al Karma conceded in 52% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Al Karma
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
31 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Newroz
24 Oct
Newroz
0 : 0
Diyala
16 Oct
Newroz
2 : 0
Al Minaa
09 Oct
Zakho
0 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 7

Al Karma

(Away)
06 Nov
Al Karma
4 : 1
Naft Missan
30 Oct
Al Karma
1 : 0
Duhok
24 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 1
Al Karma
17 Oct
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0 : 0
Al Karma
10 Oct
Al Karma
3 : 2
Al Karkh
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)