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Newroz vs Al Mosul - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Ridha Jalil M.
Assist: Hussein M.
28' Event
Neto Acara
Assist: Ismael M. D.
81' Event
Hussein M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League game between Newroz and Al Mosul finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Newroz
30%
Draws
19%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Newroz come out ahead of Al Mosul on wins alone.
  • Model gives Newroz a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Newroz have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Newroz Clean Sheet 68%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Al Mosul
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 10 12
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.39 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Mosul
3:0
May 27, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Al Mosul
1:1
Feb 6, 2026 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Newroz
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ridha Jalil M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Neto Acara
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Al Mosul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 95 / 100
Al Mosul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Newroz scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Al Mosul has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Newroz stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Al Mosul
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
31 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Newroz
24 Oct
Newroz
0 : 0
Diyala
16 Oct
Newroz
2 : 0
Al Minaa
09 Oct
Zakho
0 : 1
Newroz
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Al Mosul

(Away)
05 Nov
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Duhok
29 Oct
Al Mosul
2 : 4
Al Golan
23 Oct
Al Karkh
1 : 1
Al Mosul
18 Oct
Erbil
0 : 1
Al Mosul
07 Oct
Al Mosul
0 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)