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Newroz vs Karbala - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Ridha Jalil M.

AI Match Summary

Newroz in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Newroz
35%
Draws
10%
Karbala
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Karbala haven't matched Newroz's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Newroz's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Newroz have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Newroz Clean Sheet 20%
Karbala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newroz Karbala
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 3
Draws 10 7
Losses 5 19
Goals Scored 1.39 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.74 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 6, 2026 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
1:0
Jun 18, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
1:0
Sep 21, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Newroz
0:0
Mar 31, 2024 Stars League
Karbala vs Newroz
2:4
Nov 30, 2023 Stars League
Newroz vs Karbala
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ridha Jalil M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Karbala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newroz 85 / 100
Karbala 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newroz Karbala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newroz's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Karbala's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Newroz went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Newroz VS Karbala
1.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Newroz

(Home)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
31 Oct
Al Shorta
1 : 1
Newroz
24 Oct
Newroz
0 : 0
Diyala
16 Oct
Newroz
2 : 0
Al Minaa
09 Oct
Zakho
0 : 1
Newroz
Page 1 of 7

Karbala

(Away)
06 Nov
Newroz
1 : 0
Karbala
30 Oct
Karbala
2 : 2
Al Talaba
23 Oct
Duhok
5 : 2
Karbala
16 Oct
Karbala
1 : 2
Al Gharraf
10 Oct
Al Kahraba
0 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 13 9 3 1 23:10 30
2 Newroz 13 7 5 1 18:5 26
3 Al Naft 13 7 4 2 15:7 25
4 Al Shorta 13 6 6 1 15:7 24
5 Al Golan 13 6 5 2 19:12 23
6 Al Zawraa 13 6 3 4 17:12 21
7 Erbil 13 5 5 3 16:9 20
8 Duhok 13 4 6 3 20:16 18
9 Al Minaa 13 4 5 4 12:13 17
10 Ghaz Al Shamal 13 3 7 3 9:10 16
11 Al Talaba 13 3 7 3 15:18 16
12 Diyala 13 3 5 5 15:18 14
13 Al Gharraf 13 3 5 5 9:15 14
14 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 13 2 7 4 14:14 13
15 Zakho 13 3 4 6 10:17 13
16 Al Karkh 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
17 Al Mosul 13 3 3 7 13:21 12
18 Al Kahraba 13 2 5 6 9:15 11
19 Naft Missan 13 1 6 6 8:19 9
20 Karbala 13 1 4 8 11:25 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)