Sport Picks
Newry City vs Glenavon
Northern Ireland
Irish League Cup 2025/2026 The Showgrounds, Newry 
Match Events
1'
1'
Dalton K.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 1-0, with Newry City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
24%
35%
41%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Glenavon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Glenavon come out ahead of Newry City on wins alone.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Glenavon taking it.
- Glenavon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Glenavon, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Glenavon here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Newry City Clean Sheet 10%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newry City | Glenavon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 11, 2026 NIFL Championship
Newry City vs Glenavon
1:4
Nov 4, 2025 Irish League Cup
Newry City vs Glenavon
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Newry City
3:2
Dec 26, 2023 NIFL Premiership
Newry City vs Glenavon
0:4
Nov 24, 2023 NIFL Premiership
Newry City vs Glenavon
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newry City Compare
Top Goalscorer Dalton K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Glenavon Compare
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newry City 22 / 100
Glenavon 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newry City Glenavon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Glenavon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newry City's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Glenavon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Newry City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Newry City VS Glenavon
1.75 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Newry City
(Home) 03 Oct
Loughgall
2 : 1 Newry City
25 Sept
Newry City
3 : 2 Harland & Wolff
18 Sept
Newry City
1 : 1 Annagh
11 Sept
Strabane Athletic
2 : 2 Newry City
04 Sept
Newry City
2 : 2 Armagh
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Newry City
3 : 2 Harland & Wolff
18 Sept
Newry City
1 : 1 Annagh
04 Sept
Newry City
2 : 2 Armagh
21 Aug
Newry City
0 : 3 Warrenpoint
11 Aug
Newry City
1 : 4 Glenavon
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Glenavon
(Away) 03 Oct
Moyola
0 : 3 Glenavon
25 Sept
Glenavon
4 : 1 Loughgall
19 Sept
Glenavon
1 : 0 Newington FC
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1 Glenavon
05 Sept
Dundela
3 : 2 Glenavon
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03 Oct
Moyola
0 : 3 Glenavon
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1 Glenavon
05 Sept
Dundela
3 : 2 Glenavon
22 Aug
Armagh
2 : 2 Glenavon
11 Aug
Newry City
1 : 4 Glenavon
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Institute -
TBD -
TBD -
Glentoran -
Crusaders -
TBD -
Oxford Sunnyside 1
Ballymacash 5
Cliftonville -
TBD -
Ballyclare 1
Coagh Utd 2
Loughgall -
TBD -
TBD -
Strabane Athletic -
Ards -
TBD -
TBD -
Dungannon -
Moyola 5
Portstewart 3
TBD -
Annagh -
Dollingstown -
TBD -
TBD -
Coleraine -
Armagh -
TBD -
TBD -
Carrick Rangers -
Newry City 3
Knockbreda 0
TBD -
Portadown -
Warrenpoint -
TBD -
TBD -
Glenavon -
Harland & Wolff -
TBD -
TBD -
Dundela -
Linfield -
TBD -
TBD -
Queens University -
Ballymena -
TBD -
TBD -
Ballinamallard -
Newington FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Limavady -
Dergview 3
Rathfriland Rangers 1
TBD -
Larne -
Bangor FC -
TBD -
Lisburn Distillery 3
Banbridge 2
1/16-finals
Institute 0
Glentoran 1
Crusaders 3
Ballymacash 1
Cliftonville 4
Coagh Utd 1
Loughgall 2
Strabane Athletic 3
Ards 1
Dungannon 2
Moyola 3
Annagh 0
Dollingstown 0
Coleraine 8
Armagh 3
Carrick Rangers 2
Newry City 1
Portadown 0
Warrenpoint 0
Glenavon 2
Harland & Wolff 6
Dundela 0
Linfield 2
Queens University 0
Ballymena 1
Ballinamallard 0
Newington FC 3
Limavady 1
Dergview 3
Larne 7
Bangor FC 4
Lisburn Distillery 1
1/8-finals
Glentoran 2
Crusaders 1
Cliftonville 5
Strabane Athletic 2
Dungannon 0
Moyola 1
Coleraine 7
Armagh 1
Newry City 1
Glenavon 0
Harland & Wolff 3
Linfield 6
Ballymena 3
Newington FC 0
Larne 2
Bangor FC 1
Quarter-finals
Glentoran 2
Cliftonville 1
Moyola 0
Coleraine 2
Newry City 2
Linfield 3
Ballymena 2
Larne 0
Semi-finals
Glentoran 2
Coleraine 1
Linfield 1
Ballymena 0
Final
Glentoran 0
Linfield 1
