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Newtown vs Denbigh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Newtown Logo

Newtown

1 - 0
FT
Denbigh Logo

Denbigh

Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
O’Riordan R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Newtown in this Cymru North matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newtown.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

68%
Newtown
15%
Draws
17%
Denbigh
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newtown

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Newtown lately — more wins on the board than Denbigh.
  • Win probability leans Newtown's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Cymru North form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Newtown have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Newtown Clean Sheet 20%
Denbigh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newtown Denbigh
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 9
Draws 3 2
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.59 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.48 2.18
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Cymru North
Newtown vs Denbigh
1:0
Jan 24, 2026 Cymru North
Denbigh vs Newtown
1:0
Sep 27, 2025 Cymru North
Newtown vs Denbigh
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newtown Compare

Top Goalscorer O’Riordan R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Denbigh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newtown 67 / 100
Denbigh 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newtown Denbigh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newtown Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Denbigh let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

Attacking prowess: Newtown scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.67 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Newtown remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Newtown VS Denbigh
2 Goals Scored 1.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Newtown

(Home)
03 Oct
Mold Alexandra
1 : 2
Newtown
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1
Porthmadog
12 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 1
Newtown
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Bala
0 : 1
Newtown
Page 1 of 6

Denbigh

(Away)
02 Oct
Denbigh
2 : 4
Holyhead
26 Sept
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0
Denbigh
11 Sept
Denbigh
5 : 2
Bala
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Denbigh
1 : 3
Rhyl
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 10 9 0 1 26:6 27
2 Newtown 9 7 1 1 18:3 22
3 Mold Alexandra 10 6 2 2 24:13 20
4 Porthmadog 10 6 2 2 17:11 20
5 Bala 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
6 Caersws FC 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
7 Bangor 1876 10 5 1 4 23:18 16
8 Guilsfield 10 4 4 2 16:12 16
9 Buckley 10 3 3 4 22:17 12
10 Llanuwchllyn 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
11 Rhyl 9 2 3 4 17:19 9
12 Ruthin Town 10 2 2 6 9:20 8
13 Denbigh 10 2 1 7 18:23 7
14 Holyhead 9 2 1 6 11:18 7
15 Gresford 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
16 Penrhyncoch 10 0 1 9 4:30 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)