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Newtown vs Porthmadog - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru North
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Williams R.

AI Match Summary

Porthmadog in this Cymru North matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Porthmadog.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Newtown
15%
Draws
39%
Porthmadog
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Newtown

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Porthmadog at 1.93 per game, Newtown at 1.59.
  • Newtown are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Newtown Clean Sheet 20%
Porthmadog Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Newtown Porthmadog
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.59 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Cymru North
Newtown vs Porthmadog
0:1
Mar 23, 2010 Cymru Premier
Newtown vs Porthmadog
1:3
Aug 15, 2009 Cymru Premier
Porthmadog vs Newtown
1:1
Mar 14, 2009 Cymru Premier
Newtown vs Porthmadog
2:0
Oct 25, 2008 Cymru Premier
Porthmadog vs Newtown
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newtown Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Porthmadog Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newtown 67 / 100
Porthmadog 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Newtown Porthmadog

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newtown Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newtown found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Porthmadog's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Newtown went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newtown VS Porthmadog
2 Goals Scored 1.63
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Newtown

(Home)
03 Oct
Mold Alexandra
1 : 2
Newtown
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1
Porthmadog
12 Sept
Holyhead
0 : 1
Newtown
05 Sept
Newtown
1 : 0
Denbigh
31 Aug
Bala
0 : 1
Newtown
Page 1 of 6

Porthmadog

(Away)
03 Oct
Porthmadog
1 : 0
Bangor 1876
26 Sept
Newtown
0 : 1
Porthmadog
12 Sept
Porthmadog
3 : 0
Ruthin Town
05 Sept
Porthmadog
1 : 2
Bala
31 Aug
Holyhead
2 : 2
Porthmadog
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brickfield Rangers 10 9 0 1 26:6 27
2 Newtown 9 7 1 1 18:3 22
3 Mold Alexandra 10 6 2 2 24:13 20
4 Porthmadog 10 6 2 2 17:11 20
5 Bala 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
6 Caersws FC 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
7 Bangor 1876 10 5 1 4 23:18 16
8 Guilsfield 10 4 4 2 16:12 16
9 Buckley 10 3 3 4 22:17 12
10 Llanuwchllyn 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
11 Rhyl 9 2 3 4 17:19 9
12 Ruthin Town 10 2 2 6 9:20 8
13 Denbigh 10 2 1 7 18:23 7
14 Holyhead 9 2 1 6 11:18 7
15 Gresford 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
16 Penrhyncoch 10 0 1 9 4:30 1
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)