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Nigeria W vs Zambia W

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Women 2024 Stade Larbi Zaouli
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nigeria W play Zambia W in the Africa Cup of Nations Women 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nigeria W averaged 1.77 goals scored and 0.65 conceded. Zambia W averaged 2 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, Nigeria W won 3, Zambia W won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 18, 2025 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.22 for Nigeria W and 1.34 for Zambia W. This points to a Nigeria W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Nigeria W
15%
Draws
38%
Zambia W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nigeria W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Nigeria W picked up more points recently compared to Zambia W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.22 vs 1.34 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Nigeria W Clean Sheet 18%
Zambia W Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nigeria W Zambia W
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 19 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.77 2
Goals Conceded 0.65 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.80 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.80 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Nigeria W vs Zambia W
5:0
Jul 22, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Nigeria W vs Zambia W
0:1
Nov 21, 2018 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Nigeria W vs Zambia W
4:0
Oct 14, 2014 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Zambia W vs Nigeria W
0:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nigeria W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ohale O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Okoronkwo E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.38
Avg xA / game 0.9

Zambia W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nigeria W 46 / 100
Zambia W 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nigeria W Zambia W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nigeria W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nigeria W attacking → ← attacking Zambia W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nigeria W scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Zambia W let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Nigeria W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Zambia W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Cup knockout game. Winning is all that matters, which can lead to wild tactics or extra time.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

63 Points in last 5 54
1.80 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
0.80 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63