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Niteroiense vs Bonsucesso

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Gallo B.
(Penalty)
40' Event
Leo Itaperuna
45' Event
Gabriel Cipriano

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Niteroiense and Bonsucesso finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bonsucesso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Niteroiense
35%
Draws
32%
Bonsucesso
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Niteroiense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Niteroiense's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Bonsucesso have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 68%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Niteroiense Bonsucesso
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 15 14
Draws 9 9
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.73 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs Bonsucesso
2:3
Nov 25, 2024 Carioca B2
Bonsucesso vs Niteroiense
3:4
Nov 20, 2024 Carioca B2
Niteroiense vs Bonsucesso
0:2
Nov 14, 2024 Carioca B2
Bonsucesso vs Niteroiense
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Niteroiense Compare

Top Goalscorer Leo Itaperuna
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Cipriano
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Niteroiense 77 / 100
Bonsucesso 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Niteroiense Bonsucesso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Niteroiense's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.25 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Bonsucesso conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

Niteroiense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Bonsucesso
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Niteroiense

(Home)
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
24 Oct
Campo Grande
1 : 1
Niteroiense
18 Oct
Niteroiense
2 : 3
Bonsucesso
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Bonsucesso

(Away)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)