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Niteroiense vs Serrano FC

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

2' Event
Marcelinho
10' Event
Bare
62' Event
Matheus Juliao
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Niteroiense and Serrano FC finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serrano FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Niteroiense
30%
Draws
19%
Serrano FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Niteroiense come out ahead of Serrano FC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Niteroiense a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 68%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Niteroiense Serrano FC
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 14 11
Draws 9 12
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.59 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs Serrano FC
2:0
Oct 4, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs Serrano FC
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Niteroiense Compare

Top Goalscorer Bare
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Serrano FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcelinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Anthony
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Niteroiense 95 / 100
Serrano FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Niteroiense Serrano FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Niteroiense scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Solid form: Niteroiense remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Serrano FC has conceded goals in 70% of their last 33 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Niteroiense VS Serrano FC
1 Goals Scored 1.25
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Niteroiense

(Home)
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
Page 1 of 6

Serrano FC

(Away)
19 Sept
Audax RJ
0 : 1
Serrano FC
12 Sept
Serrano FC
0 : 0
Goytacaz
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0
Serrano FC
27 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 3
Sao Goncalo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)