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Nogueirense vs Alverca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2018/2019
Nogueirense Logo

Nogueirense

1 - 2
FT
Alverca Logo

Alverca

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Alverca in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alverca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Nogueirense
35%
Draws
35%
Alverca
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alverca lately — more wins on the board than Nogueirense.
  • Win probability leans Nogueirense's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 18%
Alverca Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nogueirense Alverca
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Alverca
1:2
Jan 6, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Alverca vs Nogueirense
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nogueirense 36 / 100
Alverca 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nogueirense Alverca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Nogueirense scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Nogueirense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nogueirense VS Alverca
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.67 Goals Conceded 0.75
83% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nogueirense

(Home)
13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3
Nogueirense
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3
Naval 1893
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3
Nogueirense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
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Alverca

(Away)
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0
Rio Ave
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3
Alverca
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2
Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1
Santa Clara
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1
Alverca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leiria 34 24 3 7 59:24 75
2 Vilafranquense 34 21 9 4 56:22 72
3 Anadia 34 20 11 3 52:23 71
4 SB Castelo Branco 34 17 11 6 45:23 62
5 Sintrense 34 15 9 10 49:41 54
6 Oliveira Hospital 34 13 13 8 42:27 52
7 Alverca 34 14 9 11 39:33 51
8 Caldas SC 34 12 10 12 37:38 46
9 Oleiros 34 11 12 11 38:44 45
10 Torreense 34 11 11 12 36:36 44
11 Fatima 34 12 7 15 38:46 43
12 GS Loures 34 11 8 15 33:31 41
13 Sertanense 34 8 17 9 32:36 41
14 Nogueirense 34 11 8 15 32:39 41
15 Santa Iria 34 9 8 17 35:55 35
16 Alcains 34 5 8 21 21:48 23
17 GD Peniche 34 5 8 21 22:51 23
18 Macao 34 3 6 25 20:69 15
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)