Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Macedo P.
38'
38'
Bernardo G.
AI Match Summary
The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Nogueirense and Sertanense finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
35%
16%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nogueirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Nogueirense carry the better recent record into this one.
- Nogueirense are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Nogueirense Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Nogueirense | Sertanense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 10 | 12 |
| Losses | 12 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 0.85 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.34 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Sertanense
1:1
Apr 14, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Nogueirense
1:2
Dec 2, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Sertanense
1:1
Mar 31, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Nogueirense vs Sertanense
2:2
Dec 3, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Nogueirense
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Nogueirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Bernardo G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.67
Sertanense Compare
Top Goalscorer Macedo P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Nogueirense 68 / 100
Sertanense 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Nogueirense Sertanense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nogueirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Sertanense let in goals in 85% of their last 33 matches.
Attacking prowess: Nogueirense scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Nogueirense has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Nogueirense VS Sertanense
1.8 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
60% Over 2.5 0%
60% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Nogueirense
(Home) 13 Sept
SB Castelo Branco
2 : 3 Nogueirense
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3 Naval 1893
23 Aug
Fazendense
3 : 3 Nogueirense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Uniao Da Serra
30 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 3 Naval 1893
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
05 May
Nogueirense
1 : 2 Alverca
20 Apr
Nogueirense
1 : 2 Anadia
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Sertanense
(Away) 27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1 Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3 Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0 Sertanense
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0 Sertanense
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1 Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0 Sertanense
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 1 Sertanense
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortagua FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:4 | 10 |
| 2 | O Elvas CAD | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveira Hospital | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 9 |
| 4 | Os Marialvas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 5 | Uniao Da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 6 | Naval 1893 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 7 | Nogueirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 8 | SB Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 9 | Fatima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 10 | Malveira | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 11 | Alverca B | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3:7 | 2 |
| 13 | Fazendense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 14 | GD Os Nazarenos | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:10 | 0 |
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)
