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Stadium Background

Nomme Utd vs Narva - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Männiku Stadium, Tallinn
Nomme Utd Logo

Nomme Utd

1 - 2
FT
Narva Logo

Narva

Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Gero A.
Assist: Velijev M.
24'
Jarvelaid H.
31' Event
Velijev M.
Assist: Awusi W.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Narva in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Narva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Nomme Utd
20%
Draws
20%
Narva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nomme Utd

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Nomme Utd have won more games recently than Narva.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Nomme Utd Clean Sheet 16%
Narva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nomme Utd Narva
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 0 4
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 1.93 1.24
Goals Conceded 2.21 2.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Narva
1:2
Jun 13, 2026 Meistriliiga
Narva vs Nomme Utd
1:2
Apr 11, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Narva
5:1
Jan 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Narva vs Nomme Utd
3:4
Sep 21, 2024 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Narva
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nomme Utd Compare

Top Goalscorer Frolov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Narva Compare

Top Goalscorer Gero A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Velijev M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nomme Utd 30 / 100
Narva 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nomme Utd Narva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nomme Utd Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nomme Utd scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Narva conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Narva's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Nomme Utd VS Narva
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nomme Utd

(Home)
19 Sept
Nomme Utd
1 : 3
Paide Linnameeskond
12 Sept
Nomme Utd
2 : 3
Flora
08 Sept
Kalju
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
02 Sept
Nomme Utd
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
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Narva

(Away)
20 Sept
Narva
1 : 1
Levadia
12 Sept
Kalju
2 : 0
Narva
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Kuressaare
3 : 1
Narva
30 Aug
Narva
0 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)