Sport Picks
Match Events
6'
6'
Luis Fernando
16'
16'
Lucas Douglas
50'
50'
Matheus Arcanjo
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-3. This leg finished 4-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Noroeste
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Comercial lately — more wins on the board than Noroeste.
- Noroeste are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Comercial arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Noroeste, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 68%
Comercial Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Noroeste | Comercial |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 13 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.28 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 22, 2026 Copa Paulista
Noroeste vs Comercial
4:3
Jul 18, 2026 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Noroeste
2:0
Jan 31, 2024 Paulista A2
Noroeste vs Comercial
1:1
Sep 3, 2023 Copa Paulista
Noroeste vs Comercial
3:0
Jul 30, 2023 Copa Paulista
Comercial vs Noroeste
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Noroeste Compare
Top Goalscorer Lucas Douglas
1 Goals Assists Leader Elicley
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Comercial Compare
Top Goalscorer Luis Fernando
1 Goals Assists Leader Matheus Arcanjo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Noroeste 59 / 100
Comercial 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Noroeste Comercial
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Noroeste Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Noroeste stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Noroeste found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Comercial let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Noroeste VS Comercial
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Noroeste
(Home) 12 Sept
Primavera EC
2 : 2 Noroeste
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
19 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1 Noroeste
09 Aug
Noroeste
2 : 1 Piracicaba
01 Aug
Piracicaba
1 : 1 Noroeste
Page 1 of 6
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
09 Aug
Noroeste
2 : 1 Piracicaba
25 Jul
Noroeste
2 : 2 Uniao Sao Joao
28 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 3 Portuguesa RJ
07 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 0 Sampaio Correa FE
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Comercial
(Away) 13 Sept
Comercial
0 : 0 Sao Jose EC
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0 EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
18 Aug
Comercial
0 : 1 Piracicaba
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
EC Sao Bernardo
2 : 1 Comercial
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3 Comercial
08 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1 Comercial
25 Jul
Piracicaba
0 : 2 Comercial
28 Mar
Jabaquara
2 : 1 Comercial
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linense | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 2 | Bandeirante | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Gremio Prudente | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Marilia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:9 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noroeste | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10:10 | 9 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Comercial | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Piracicaba | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:6 | 6 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus-SP | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 2 | Primavera EC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Paulista | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 4 | Osasco Sporting | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sao Jose EC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:5 | 13 |
| 2 | EC Sao Bernardo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12:8 | 9 |
| 3 | Sao Caetano | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2:9 | 2 |
| 4 | Santo Andre | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
Promotion - Copa Paulista (Play Offs)
