Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Noroeste vs Primavera EC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista Estadio Alfredo de Castilho, Bauru
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Noroeste at 1.32 goals for, 1.19 against; Primavera EC at 1.83 for, 1.14 against. Past meetings favor Noroeste slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 12, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 0.94 vs 1.94, favoring Noroeste. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Noroeste
35%
Draws
34%
Primavera EC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Noroeste haven't matched Primavera EC's recent run of results.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on Primavera EC taking it.
  • Primavera EC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Primavera EC, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 10%
Primavera EC Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noroeste Primavera EC
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 10 13
Draws 13 5
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.32 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Copa Paulista
Primavera EC vs Noroeste
2:2
Feb 15, 2026 Paulista
Primavera EC vs Noroeste
3:3
Feb 3, 2024 Paulista A2
Primavera EC vs Noroeste
1:2
Jan 29, 2023 Paulista A2
Noroeste vs Primavera EC
3:0
Apr 30, 2021 Paulista A3
Noroeste vs Primavera EC
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noroeste 10 / 100
Primavera EC 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noroeste Primavera EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Primavera EC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Noroeste scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Noroeste has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Primavera EC conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Noroeste VS Primavera EC
1.13 Goals Scored 2.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Noroeste

(Home)
12 Sept
Primavera EC
2 : 2
Noroeste
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
19 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Noroeste
09 Aug
Noroeste
2 : 1
Piracicaba
01 Aug
Piracicaba
1 : 1
Noroeste
Page 1 of 7

Primavera EC

(Away)
12 Sept
Primavera EC
2 : 2
Noroeste
05 Sept
Primavera EC
7 : 0
Sao Caetano
29 Aug
Sao Caetano
0 : 5
Primavera EC
22 Aug
Primavera EC
1 : 2
Paulista
16 Aug
Osasco Sporting
1 : 2
Primavera EC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Noroeste -
TBD -
Primavera EC 12
Sao Caetano 0
Juventus-SP -
TBD -
Bandeirante 3
Uniao Sao Joao 4
Sao Jose EC -
TBD -
EC Sao Bernardo 2
Comercial 3
Linense -
TBD -
Paulista 2
Gremio Prudente 7
Quarter-finals
Noroeste 2
Primavera EC 2
Juventus-SP 0
Uniao Sao Joao 1
Sao Jose EC 0
Comercial 0
Linense 2
Gremio Prudente 2
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -