Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Noroeste vs Santos

Brazil Brazil

Paulista Estadio Alfredo de Castilho, Bauru
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Escobar G.
Assist: Miguelito
12'
Gabriel Barbosa
16' Event
Pedro Carrerette
Assist: Mathias de Almeida D. M.

AI Match Summary

Santos in this Paulista matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Santos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Noroeste
17%
Draws
70%
Santos
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Santos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Santos have won more games recently than Noroeste.
  • Model gives Santos a 70% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Santos here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Noroeste Clean Sheet 12%
Santos Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Noroeste Santos
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 11
Draws 11 10
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 0.75 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Paulista
Noroeste vs Santos
1:2
Feb 19, 2025 Paulista
Santos vs Noroeste
3:0
Feb 11, 2011 Paulista
Santos vs Noroeste
2:0
Jan 25, 2009 Paulista
Noroeste vs Santos
1:2
Mar 9, 2008 Paulista
Santos vs Noroeste
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Noroeste Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Carrerette
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Santos Compare

Top Goalscorer Escobar G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rony
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Noroeste 14 / 100
Santos 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Noroeste Santos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Noroeste's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Santos conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Noroeste stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Noroeste VS Santos
0.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Noroeste

(Home)
25 Jul
Noroeste
2 : 2
Uniao Sao Joao
18 Jul
Comercial
2 : 0
Noroeste
28 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 3
Portuguesa RJ
21 Jun
Portuguesa RJ
1 : 1
Noroeste
07 Jun
Noroeste
1 : 0
Sampaio Correa FE
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Santos

(Away)
29 Jul
Santos
4 : 2
Universidad Central
25 Jul
Santos
2 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
22 Jul
Universidad Central
1 : 4
Santos
16 Jul
Botafogo RJ
2 : 1
Santos
04 Jul
Santos
3 : 0
Uniao Sao Joao
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Novorizontino851216:1016
2Palmeiras85128:716
3Bragantino844014:216
4Portuguesa850311:715
5Corinthians842210:614
6Sao Paulo841311:1213
7Capivariano84137:1013
8Santos833212:712
9Guarani83326:712
10Botafogo SP83235:911
11Mirassol822410:88
12Primavera EC822414:158
13Sao Bernardo82248:108
14Noroeste815211:118
15Velo Clube81252:135
16Ponte Preta80173:141
Promotion - Paulista (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista A2 2027 (Main)