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North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Stars W

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NWSL Women WakeMed Soccer Park
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AI Match Summary

North Carolina Courage W play Chicago Stars W in the NWSL Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, North Carolina Courage W averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. Chicago Stars W averaged 1.11 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, North Carolina Courage W won 4, Chicago Stars W won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for North Carolina Courage W and 0.94 for Chicago Stars W. This points to a North Carolina Courage W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
North Carolina Courage W
24%
Draws
26%
Chicago Stars W
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: North Carolina Courage W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • North Carolina Courage W picked up more points recently compared to Chicago Stars W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
North Carolina Courage W Clean Sheet 24%
Chicago Stars W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Carolina Courage W Chicago Stars W
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.64 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.21 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Stars W
4:0
Aug 23, 2025 NWSL Women
Chicago Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W
3:3
May 17, 2025 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Stars W
2:0
Sep 29, 2024 NWSL Women
Chicago Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W
1:3
Jun 23, 2024 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Chicago Stars W
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Carolina Courage W Compare

Top Goalscorer Ijeh E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sanchez A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Chicago Stars W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Carolina Courage W 50 / 100
Chicago Stars W 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Carolina Courage W Chicago Stars W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: North Carolina Courage W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

North Carolina Courage W attacking → ← attacking Chicago Stars W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Carolina Courage W scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Chicago Stars W let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

North Carolina Courage W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Chicago Stars W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 30
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

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