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World

World Championship 2026 National Arena Toshe Proeski

Wales

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This World Championship 2026 encounter between North Macedonia and Wales promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. North Macedonia averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in recent matches. Wales shows a form average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for North Macedonia, 2 wins for Wales, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 18.11.25 ended in a 7:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.44 for North Macedonia and 1.81 for Wales, suggesting the primary value lies in the Wales double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

North Macedonia

32%

Draws

36%

Wales

Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

North Macedonia picked up more points recently compared to Wales.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 44%

Over 3.5 Goals 26%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

North Macedonia Clean Sheet 11%

Wales Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	North Macedonia	Wales
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	12
Draws	11	10
Losses	9	8
Goals Scored	1.17	1.6
Goals Conceded	1.27	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.88
Possession %	N/A	N/A
Shots per Match	N/A	N/A
Shots on Target	N/A	N/A
Corners per Match	N/A	N/A
Yellow/Red Cards	N/A	N/A

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

18.11.25 World Championship

Wales vs North Macedonia

Possession: 40% - 46% Cards: 3 - 1

7:1

25.03.25 World Championship

North Macedonia vs Wales

Possession: 52% - 46% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

11.10.13 World Championship

Wales vs North Macedonia

Possession: 54% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

06.09.13 World Championship

North Macedonia vs Wales

Possession: 56% - 40% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

North Macedonia

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Wales

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Macedonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Miovski B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Wales Compare

Top Goalscorer Brooks D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Macedonia 31 / 100

Wales 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

North Macedonia Wales

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wales or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.7%

2.63

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

North Macedonia 35%

Wales 29%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

North Macedonia 30%

Wales 38%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

North Macedonia 32%

Wales 36%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

North Macedonia 34%

Wales 34%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

North Macedonia 29%

Wales 40%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

North Macedonia 37%

Wales 41%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

North Macedonia attacking → ← attacking Wales

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

North Macedonia have found the net in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Wales have conceded at least one goal in 67% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.50 goals per match.

North Macedonia remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Wales suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

History Log Unavailable

Historical prediction accuracy logs and success dashboards require a live connection to a completed tips outcome database. This section is currently flagged as: Needs a Real Data Source.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 46

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

N/A Ball possession % N/A

N/A Shots per game N/A

N/A Shots on target N/A

N/A Corners per game N/A

N/A Cards per game N/A

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0