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North Star vs Logan Lightning

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League O'Callaghan Park
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Bekavac J.
55' Event
Bekavac J.
85' Event
Oberli B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Queensland Premier League game between North Star and Logan Lightning finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Logan Lightning.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
North Star
22%
Draws
60%
Logan Lightning
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Logan Lightning

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Logan Lightning carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Logan Lightning taking it.
  • Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Logan Lightning have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
North Star Clean Sheet 10%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric North Star Logan Lightning
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 18 13
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 2.38 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Queensland Premier League
North Star vs Logan Lightning
1:3
Feb 28, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs North Star
4:0
Jun 28, 2014 Brisbane Premier League
Logan Lightning vs North Star
5:1
Mar 23, 2014 Brisbane Premier League
North Star vs Logan Lightning
0:1
Aug 24, 2013 Brisbane Premier League
Logan Lightning vs North Star
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Star Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Bekavac J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Star 18 / 100
Logan Lightning 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
North Star Logan Lightning

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOG Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Logan Lightning let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

North Star scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Away concern: Logan Lightning has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

North Star VS Logan Lightning
1 Goals Scored 1.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Broadbeach Utd.18144047:1646
2Brisbane Strikers18143144:1445
3Sunshine Coast Wanderers1885536:2429
4Robina City1884630:2028
5Ipswich1884629:2728
6Caboolture1883735:3127
7Redlands1874735:3225
8Holland Park Hawks1873829:3324
9Logan Lightning1872933:3523
10North Star18331216:3712
11St. George Willawong18311410:4110
12Capalaba FC18221417:518