Sport Picks

USA

MLS Next Pro Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, TX

North Texas

4 - 1

Real Monarchs

Our Tip

Match Events

Ream L.

Assist: Silva N.

17'

Riquelme A.

38'

Mesalles R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS Next Pro game between North Texas and Real Monarchs finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward North Texas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%

North Texas

15%

Draws

34%

Real Monarchs

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: North Texas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence

Look at the last few games and North Texas come out ahead of Real Monarchs on wins alone.
North Texas are the model's pick here, at 90%.
Regular MLS Next Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 84%

Over 3.5 Goals 50%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%

North Texas Clean Sheet 16%

Real Monarchs Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	North Texas	Real Monarchs
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	13
Draws	0	0
Losses	16	17
Goals Scored	1.6	1.57
Goals Conceded	1.7	1.97
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 MLS Next Pro

North Texas vs Real Monarchs

4:1

Mar 1, 2026 MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs vs North Texas

3:2

Sep 28, 2025 MLS Next Pro

North Texas vs Real Monarchs

2:4

Jul 1, 2024 MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs vs North Texas

1:2

May 25, 2024 MLS Next Pro

North Texas vs Real Monarchs

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

North Texas Compare

Top Goalscorer Simmonds N.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Garcia D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Real Monarchs Compare

Top Goalscorer Ream L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.31

Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

North Texas 84 / 100

Real Monarchs 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

North Texas Real Monarchs

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick North Texas Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Real Monarchs conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

North Texas scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: North Texas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

North Texas VS Real Monarchs

1.88 Goals Scored 0.88

2 Goals Conceded 2.88

88% Over 1.5 88%

88% Over 2.5 88%

50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

North Texas

(Home)

20 Sept

Colorado Rapids 2

2 : 1

North Texas

14 Sept

North Texas

1 : 0

Houston Dynamo 2

10 Sept

North Texas

2 : 3

Houston Dynamo 2

05 Sept

North Texas

4 : 1

Real Monarchs

29 Aug

St. Louis City 2

1 : 2

North Texas

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Real Monarchs

(Away)

20 Sept

Real Monarchs

2 : 1

Ventura County

17 Sept

Real Monarchs

0 : 1

Minnesota United 2

14 Sept

San Jose Earthquakes II

4 : 0

Real Monarchs

05 Sept

North Texas

4 : 1

Real Monarchs

31 Aug

Real Monarchs

3 : 0

Tacoma Defiance

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