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Northern Mariana Islands vs Tuvalu

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-4, with Tuvalu advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Northern Mariana Islands
6%
Draws
4%
Tuvalu
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Northern Mariana Islands

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tuvalu carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Northern Mariana Islands are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Tuvalu arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tuvalu, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 89%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 89%
Over 3.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 37%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Northern Mariana Islands Clean Sheet 10%
Tuvalu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Northern Mariana Islands Tuvalu
Matches Played 27 18
Wins 3 4
Draws 2 2
Losses 22 12
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 4.38 6.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.38 6.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2023 Pacific Games
Northern Mariana Islands vs Tuvalu
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Northern Mariana Islands 83 / 100
Tuvalu 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Northern Mariana Islands Tuvalu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tuvalu conceded in 94% of 18 recent games.

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Tuvalu lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Northern Mariana Islands scored in 56% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

Northern Mariana Islands VS Tuvalu
1 Goals Scored 0.75
4.38 Goals Conceded 6.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
88% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Northern Mariana Islands

(Home)
22 Dec
Northern Mariana Islands
0 : 8
Guam
21 Dec
Northern Mariana Islands
1 : 2
Guam
07 Apr
Northern Mariana Islands
2 : 1
Guam
06 Apr
Northern Mariana Islands
2 : 2
Guam
30 Nov
Northern Mariana Islands
1 : 4
Tuvalu
Page 1 of 6

Tuvalu

(Away)
30 Nov
Northern Mariana Islands
1 : 4
Tuvalu
27 Nov
Tonga
0 : 4
Tuvalu
20 Nov
Tuvalu
0 : 6
Vanuatu
17 Nov
Papua New Guinea
3 : 0
Tuvalu
17 Jul
New Caledonia
11 : 0
Tuvalu
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

9th place
Northern Mariana Islands1
Tuvalu4
American Samoa2
Tonga6
Semi-finals
Northern Mariana Islands4
American Samoa0
Tonga0
Tuvalu4